COMPARISON BETWEEN TSUNAMI MODELING SCENARIOS FOR SHABLA AREA (BLACK SEA) USING TWO DIFFERENT SOFTWARE

Abstract

There are evidences of 22 past tsunamis generated in the Black Sea area. Shabla area is the most dangerous for the Romanian shoreline and triggered past high magnitude earthquakes and tsunamis. According to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) data base, 3 important events occurred in Shabla: the most recent, on 31^st of March 1901, an earthquake of magnitude 7.2 triggered waves of 5 m, other sources estimating 2.5 - 3 m; the oldest documented event, in the1^stCentury BC, in Bisone area, and the third one, year 543 AC, when a 7.5 magnitude earthquake generated tsunami waves of 2 - 4 m.

Tsunami modeling was accomplished for Shabla area using two software, Tsunami Analysis Tool (TAT) and TRIDEC Cloud, and past earthquake parameters (location, depth, focal mechanism). A comparison between the results of the two software was accomplished, for the same input parameters:  magnitudes of 7, 7.2, 7.5 and 8, depths of 5, 10 and 30 km and 5 fault plane solutions. The worst case scenario with TRIDEC software displays waves of maximum 2.62 m in Varna, for a magnitude 8 and a depth of 5 km, with 0.32 m in Constanta; the worst case using TAT software shows maximum waves of 4.3 m in Kamen Bryag, with 4Romanian locations affected (2 m waves in Costinesti). Moderate waves are given by scenarios using magnitude 7.5, with 0.6 - 0.8 m heights. For lower magnitudes (7 - 7.2), the modeling estimates very low waves, 0.2 - 0.4 m.