Climatic and habitat suitability of „Leontopodium alpinum” Cass. populations in the Romanian Carpathians

Lăcrămioara-Mihaela MAGHIAR; Ilie-Adrian STOICA

Authors

Lăcrămioara-Mihaela MAGHIAR Babeș-Bolyai University, Cluj-Napoca, Romania. E-mail: adrian.stoica@icbcluj.ro
Ilie-Adrian STOICA Institute of Biological Research Cluj-Napoca, Romania. E-mail: adrian.stoica@icbcluj.ro

Keywords:

climate change, edelweiss, species distribution model (SDM).

Abstract

Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to obtain distributional knowledge in the context of incomplete biogeographic data sets. In this study we modeled the potential climatic niche of edelweiss in the Romanian Carpathians and the Alps for present and future environmental conditions. The prime objective of the study was to identify the possible impact of climate change over the distribution of this species with focus on the Carpathians. Ensemble models were fitted using the BIOMOD modeling tool in R software, for current conditions and two possible future scenarios (RCP pathways 6 and 8.5 for the year 2050). The results show that climate suitability is expected to decrease by 2050 in most of the locations considered in the study. These results outline the species sensitivity to climate warming, in agreement with previous studies.

Author Biographies

Lăcrămioara-Mihaela MAGHIAR, Babeș-Bolyai University, Cluj-Napoca, Romania. E-mail: adrian.stoica@icbcluj.ro

Babeș-Bolyai University, 1 M. Kogălniceanu Str., 400084, Cluj-Napoca, Romania. E-mail: adrian.stoica@icbcluj.ro

Ilie-Adrian STOICA, Institute of Biological Research Cluj-Napoca, Romania. E-mail: adrian.stoica@icbcluj.ro

Institute of Biological Research Cluj-Napoca, 48 Republicii Str., Romania. E-mail: adrian.stoica@icbcluj.ro

References

Badea, L., Gâștescu, P., Velcea, V. A. (1983) Geografia României Vol.I Geografie Fizică, Ed. Acad. Republicii Socialiste România

Bornand, C. (2008) Région floristique prioritaire du Vanil Noir - Rapport; Bureau de la protection de la nature et du paysage du canton de Fribourg

Borza, A. (1964) Rezervația cu Leontopodium alpinum de la Intregalde, Ocrotirea Naturii, 8, 1: 99-110, Ed. Acad. Republicii Socialiste România

Bundesamt für Naturschutz (2012) FloraWeb. Bonn Available at: www.floraweb.de

Ciardo, F., Jutzeler, S. (Eds.) (2007) Notes floristiques vaudoises 2007, Bull. Cercle Vaud. Bot., 36:137-169

Collins, W. J., Bellouin, N., Doutriaux-Boucher, M., Gedney, N., Halloran, P., Hinton, T., Hughes, J., Jones, C. D., Joshi, M., Liddicoat, S., Martin, G., O'Connor, F., Rae, J., Senior, C., Sitch S., Totterdell, I., Wiltshire, A., Woodward, S. (2011) Development and evaluation of an Earth system model – HadGEM2, Geophys. Model Dev., 4, 997-1062

Conrad, O., Bechtel, B., Bock, M., Dietrich, H., Fischer, E., Gerlitz, L., Wehberg, J., Wichmann, V., Böhner, J. (2015) System for Automated Geoscientific Analyses (SAGA) v. 2.1.4, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1991-2007

Elith, J., Graham, C. H., Anderson, R. P., Dudık, M., Ferrier, S., Guisan, A., Hijmans, R. J.,Huettmann, F., Leathwick, J. R., Lehmann, A., Li, J., Lohmann, L. G., Loiselle, B. A., Manion, G., Moritz, C., Nakamura, M., Nakazawa, Y., Overton, J. McC., Peterson, A. T., Phillips, S. J., Richardson, K. S., Scachetti-Pereira, R., Schapire, R. E., Soberon, J., Williams, S., Wisz, M. S., Zimmermann, N. E. (2006) Novel methods improve prediction of species’ distribution from occurrence data, Ecography, 29, 2:129-151

Florea, N., Bălăceanu, V., Munteanu, I. et al. (1994) Legenda generală a Hărții Solurilor României la scara 1:200000 (cd. de Institutul de Geodezie, Fotogrammetrie, Cartografie și Organizare teritorială)

Fordham, D., Mellin, C., Russell, B. D., Arcakaya, R. H., Bradshaw, J. A., Aiello-Lammens, M. E., Caley, J. M., Connel, S. D., Mayfield, S., Shepherd, S. A., Brook B. W. (2013) Population dynamics can be more important than physiological limits for determining range shifts under climate change, Global Change Biology, 19:3224-3237

Forest Europe 2011: State of Europe’s Forests 2011 – Status and Trends in Sustainable Forest Management in Europe, jointly prepared by Forest Europe Liaison Unit Oslo, the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) and the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO)

Freléchoux, F., Gallandat, J. D. (1995) Flore et végétation du Haut val de Binn entre Chiestafel et le col de l'Albrun. Bull. Murith., Soc. Valais. Sci. Nat., 113: 105-128

Frink, J. P. (2015) Inventarierea și cartarea, evaluarea impactului antropic și stării de conservare a speciilor de plante de interes comunitar din ROSCI0027 Cheile Bicazului-Hăşmaş şi Parcul Naţional Cheile Bicazului-Hăşmaş, Proiect POS Mediu „Plan de Management Integrat revizuit pe principii N2000 pentru Parcul Naţional Cheile Bicazului-Hăşmaş, ROSCI0027, ROSPA0018”

Frink, J. P., Kuhn, T., Magyari-Sáska, Z. (2015) Speciile de plante de interes comunitar din Parcul Naţional Cheile Bicazului-Hăşmaş şi ROSCI0027 Cheile Bicazului-Hăşmaş: inventarierea şi distribuția spațială a populațiilor. Natura 2000 în România, Cluj- Napoca, Romania (conferinţă naţională)

Gottfried, M., Pauli, H., Futschik, A., Akhalkatsi, M., Barancok, P., Alonso, J. L. B., Coldea, G., Dick, J., Erschbamer, B., Calzado, M. R. F., Kazakis, G., Krajci, J., Larsson, P., Mallaun, M., Michelsen, O., Moiseev, D., Moiseev, P., Molau, U., Merzouki, A., Nagy, L., Nakhutsrishvili, G., Pedersen, B., Pelino, G., Pușcaș, M., Rossi, G., Stanisci, A., Theurillat, J. P., Tomaselli, M., Villar, L., Vittoz, P., Vogiatzakis, I., Grabherr, G. (2012) Continent-wide response of mountain vegetation to climate change, NATURE Climate Change, 2:111-115

Hijmans, R. J., Etten, J. (2012) raster: Geographic analysis and modeling with raster data. R package version 2.0-12. http://CRAN.R-project.org/package=raster

Hijmans, R. J., Cameron, S. E., Parra, J. L., Jones P. G., Jarvis A. (2005) Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas, International Journal of Climatology, 25:1965 - 1978

Hoffer, F., Mingard, P. (1997) Bagnes 1996, Bull. Cercle Vaud. Bot., 26:9-25

Iancu, S., Decenei, P. (1964) Floarea de colți (LEONTOPODIUM ALPINUM) în Republica Populară Română, Ocrotirea Naturii, Tomul 8, nr.2, Editura Academiei Republicii Populare Române

Institute of Botany of SAS (2011) Checklist of Non-Vascular and Vascular Plants of Slovakia. Available at: http://ibot.sav.sk/checklist/

Ischer, M., Dubuis, A., Keller, R., Vittoz, P. (2014) A better understanding of the ecological conditions for Leontopodium alpinum Cassini in the Swiss Alps, Folia Geobotanica, 49, 4:541 – 55818

IUCN (2003) IUCN Red List of Threatened species (ver.2013.2)

Kozuharova, E. (2009) New Ex Situ Collection of Rare and Threatened Medicinal Plants in the Pirin Mts. (Bulgaria). Ekoloji 18(72):32-44

Kricsfalusy, V., Budnikov, G. (2007) Threatened vascular plants in the Ukrainian Carpathians: current status, distribution and conservation, Thaiszia - J. Bot., Košice, 17:11-32

Kumar, P. (2012) Biogeographic Response Of Rhododendrons To Climate Change, In: Climate Change in Sikkim Patterns, Impacts and Initiatives, Arrawatia, M. L., Tambe, S. (eds.), Information and Public Relations Department, Government of Sikkim, Gangtok

Massin-Barbet, M., Jiguet, F., Albert, C. H., Thuiler, W. (2012) Selecting pseudo-absences for species distribution models: how, where and how many?, Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 3(2):27-338

Meyer, F. (1995) Die alpine Vegetation des Schwarzseegebiets in Zermatt; Diplomarbeit, Systematisch-Geobotanisches Institut der Universität, Bern

Mingard, P. (1996) De Mauvoisin à Chanrion. Excursion du CVB dans la haute vallée de Bagnes les 12 et 13 août 1995, Bull. Cercle Vaud. Bot., 25:53-71

Mingard, P. (1997) Excursions à Mauvoisin, Bull. Cercle Vaud. Bot., 26:27-32

Mingard, P., Moret, J. -L. (1997) Le tour du Lac de Moiry (VS). Excursion du CVB du 24 août 1996, Bull. Cercle Vaud. Bot., 26:33-39

Mingard, P. (1998) Saxifraga diapensioides 1997. Journal d'une recherche pour le compte de la CPS (Commission Suisse pour la conservation des plantes sauvages), Bull. Cercle Vaud. Bot., 27:45-66

Moser, D., Gygax, A., Bäumler, B., Wyler, N. and Palese, R. (2002) Red List of the Threatened Ferns and Flowering Plants of Switzerland (Rote Liste der gefährdeten Farn- und Blütenpflanzen der Schweiz). Bundesamt für Umwelt, Wald und Landschaft, Bern; Zentrum des Datenverbundnetzes der Schweizer Flora, Chambésy; Conservatoire et Jardin botaniques de la Ville de Genève, Chambésy

Murgeanu, G., Radulescu, D., Codarcea, M., Ivanovici, V., Raileanu, G. (eds) (1966–1970) Carte Geologique de la Republique Socialiste de Romanie, echelle au 1/200000, Institut Geologique, Bucharest

Ogilivie, J. C., Creelman, C. D. (1968) Maximum-likelihood estimation of receiver operating characteristic curve parameters, J Math Psychol., 5:377–391

Parolo, G., Rosii, G. (2007) Upward migration of vascular plants following a climate warming trend in the Alps, Basic and Applied Ecology, 9(2):100-107

Petrova, A., Vladimirov, V. (2009) Red List of Bulgarian Vascular Plants. Phytologia Balcanica1 5(1):63-94.

Pop, E. (1939) Floarea Reginei: Leontopodium alpinum, Buletinul Alpin al Asociației Drumeților din Munții României, 4:2 – 4

Pușcaru-Soroceanu, E., Pușcaru, D. (1971) Excursii în Munții Făgărașului, Editura Didactică și Pedagogică, București, pp. 67-147

R Development Core Team (2011) R: A language and environment for statistical computing. Vienna, Austria: the R Foundation for Statistical Computing, URL http://www.R-project.org

Reist, S., Krähenmann, S., Käsermann, C. (1993) Pflanzensoziologische Untersuchung der alpinen Stufe von Zermatt; Lizentiatsarbeit, Systematisch-Gobotanischen Institut, Univesität Bern, Bern

Resmeriţă, I. (1973) Cartarea speciei Leontopodium alpinum Cass. din Carpaţii Româneşti, Studii şi cercetări Biologice, Seria Botanică, 25, 5:385 - 398

Riahi, K., Rao, S., Krey, V., Cho, C., Chirkov, V., Fischer, G., Kindermann, G., Nakicenovic, N., Rafaj, P. (2011) RCP 8.5 – A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions, Climatic Change, 109(1): 33 - 57

Skoberne, P. (2004) Conservation strategies for medicinal and aromatic plants, Working Group on Medicinal and Aromatic Plants, Slovenia: 14-18

Steiner, A. J. (2002) Die Vegetation der Gemeinde Zermatt, 74, 1-204

Swets, J. A. (1988) Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic systems, Science, 240:1285–1293

Thuiller, W., Georges, D., Engler, R. (2014) Biomod2: Ensemble platform for species distributionmodeling, https://cran.r-project.Org/web/packages/biomod2/biomod2.pdf

Thuiller, W., Lafourcade, B., Engler, R., Araujo, M. B. (2009) BIOMOD – a platform for ensemble forecasting of species distribution, Ecography, 32: 369-373

Toshihiko, M., Matsumoto, K., Hijioka, Y., Kinoshita, T., Nozawa, T., Ishiwatari, S., Kato, E., Shukla, P. R., Yamagata, Y., Kainuma, M. (2011) An emission pathway for stabilization at 6 Wm radiative forcing, Climatic Change, 109:59-76

Trenberth, K. E., Jones, P. D., Ambenje, P., Bojariu, R., Easterling, D., Klein Tank, A., Parker, D., Rahimzadeh, F., Renwick, J. A., Rusticucci, M., Soden, B., Zhai, P. (2007) Observations: Surface and Atmospheric Climate Change, In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M., Miller, H. L. (eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA

Tutin, T. G., Heywood, V. H., Burges, N. A., Moore, D. M., Valentine, D. H., Walters, S. M., Webb, D. A. (1976) Flora Europaea, Volume 4, Cambridge University Press

Vuuren, D. P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., Thomson, A., Hibbard, K., Hurt, G.. C., Kram, T., Krey, V., Lamarque, J. F., Masui, T., Meinshausen, M., Nakicenovic, N., Smith, S. J., Rose, S. K. (2011) The representative concentration pathways: an overview, Climatic Change, 109:5 – 31

Walther, G. -R., Beißner S., Burga, C. A. (2005) Trends in the upward shift of alpine plants, Journal of Vegetation Science, 16(5):541-548

http://observado.org/waarneming/view/69851900

http://observado.org/waarneming/view/69756497

http://observado.org/waarneming/view/69702984

http://observado.org/waarneming/view/69743883

http://observado.org/waarneming/view/69814932